Ukraine: War or No-War

Ukraine is now a running story. It’s developing almost daily, and sometimes hourly. To a section, a war is going to be there; to the rest, it’s a war-war scene, but a hot war will not follow.

Actors on the Ukraine stage are many—from the world’s strongest military power, the US, to Ukraine’s neighbour with legitimate claim to security, Russia; from the Empire’s poodle, the UK, to a fringe country assaying to be a player in the game, Turkey; from European country joining the play with one or two fighter planes to the gas market and the war industry. The feeblest actor is Ukraine itself—the Empire is pushing Ukraine like a pawn towards a firing line while the unwilling pawn is trying to lie low in the charging circumstance. It seems it’s the Empire’s hock.

The soak—Ukraine—is in a trap; and its ruling oligarchs are ridden with conflicting approaches. It likes to stay within the Empire’s orbit, and at the same time, it prefers to avoid sleeping on a pyre. One faction is getting allured by a war chest while another dislikes a drunkard’s spirit.

A war, in one sense, is already on—if diplomacy is part of war at junctures, as war is an extension of politics, and diplomacy is part of politics. Psy Op and propaganda including disinformation, all part of war, are there. The Empire and its military alliance members have already deployed parts of their war machine in and around Ukraine.

The Empire is poking Russia to step in the Ukraine trap—initiate a full-fledged war. Russia is aware of the imperial tact. To Russia, Ukraine isn’t a stage to expand its sphere of influence. Moscow assures repeatedly that it has no intention of invading Ukraine.

The problem is not with Ukraine. Russia wants its security. Ukraine has entangled itself in that security question. NATO’s east ward expansion is a serious threat to Russia, which the military alliance was carrying on since the dissolution of the USSR.

Russia now likes to reverse the Gorbachev-Yeltsin days—the Empire dictating Russia: dismantle, disarm, sale out, stay knelt down. This is the question, where the Ukraine regime has stumbled in.

Russia’s move has, as a first step, succeeded: the Empire has to put into agenda the question: NATO’s expansion vs. Russia’s security. This signals end of that old day: the Empire’s dictatorial days.

Moscow has gained something extra: Rift in the Empire’s flank—the imperialist power’s European allies. Kremlin expects widening of the rift.

And, the Ukraine game—war or no war—may end in some other way not preferred by the Empire. The Ukraine running story will continue to run along a serpentine path.

February 8, 2022

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Vol 54, No. 35, Feb 27 - March 5, 2022