Ukraine War

Who is the Beneficiary?

Farooque Chowdhury

A thick cloud is now shrouding Ukraine, once a part of the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Sufferings of about two million people from Ukraine are now overwhelming all around the world, as sufferings of refugees in many parts of the globe always pain humanity. There’s the dark cloud of a confrontation over the land. The darkness of imperialist intrigues and intervention covers everything in and around Ukraine.

Two million people have been made homeless. They are fleeing away from their abodes, but they don’t know their destiny, and address of a peaceful life. There’s cold, there’s hunger and there’s fear haunting them all the time. The old, the infirm, the persons unable to walk don’t know the path to survival and shelter. The children, walking along parents or being carried by parents, don’t understand the intricacies behind their suffering, background of the burning buildings they are leaving behind.

The confrontation has brought in the sufferings of not only of the two millions, but the entire population in the land—Ukraine. The confrontation is not without root, not without cause. There comes the imperialist intrigue and intervention, which was going on for years. The confrontation’s taking centre stage of today’s geopolitics is a last few weeks’ development.

The confrontation was hatched up over years, proxies were mobilised, arms and ammunitions were deployed massively. The proxies included extreme right wingers, Nazis. The politics was of spreading hatred. A Nazi collaborator of the World War II-days was eulogised and worshipped. Marches were organised in the name of that Nazi collaborator.

Bombardments on the Donbass region, and consequently thousands of deaths and injuries were a regular incident for the last few years. The dignified, truth-seeking MSM, the mainstream media, missed that incident, rather they ignored it. Thus those deaths and sufferings went unreported. That was a near-total silent-reality. Was that silence justified?

There’re reports of bio-weapon labs in the land, which is not investigated, but denied. Who operated and who collaborated in that venture with death?

Today’s Ukraine follows a long trail of developments. It goes to the days the USSR was dismantled. The USSR-dismantling leaders were given words—NATO, the leading military alliance in the world, won’t expand eastward—towards the lame, infirm post-USSR-Russia. Russian leaders of those days, they were great enough according to lackeys’ standard, made them content with those verbal promises. The promise—no eastward expansion of the military alliance—went void. Then, it was denied—“no such promise was made”. But, recent exposures show the promise, now being denied, was made to Russia.

Now, Russia, rising up from those days of sale-out and capitulation, makes claim to the lords—don’t forget the promise, ensure my security. Russia drew a red line—ensure self-security. The red line widened—stop patronising neo-Nazi forces in Ukraine, ensure safety and rights of the minority section of the population in Ukraine, peacefully resolve the claim of the autonomy-seeking regions, stand by the agreement already concluded instead of ignoring that for years.

With this background, Russia had to stand by the red line it announced much earlier as that was its last stand. No country, other than countries led by lackeys of the lords of the world, shall deny standing for its sovereignty and security. No state, other than states led by lackeys of those lords, shall accept non-implementation of agreement concluded. Russia had to select its position—capitulate or question.

The confrontation began as correspondence—letters exchanged between the US, NATO and Russia—came to a halt, as Russia’s red line was crossed, and Russia found options other than military have been exhausted.

One of the following developments includes sufferings rained on millions of people in Ukraine. Life is now dislodged there in the war-ravaged land—dislocated, scared, hungry, suffering millions.

The land has been pushed into a power game of capitals manifested mainly in military moves and diplomatic bargains. Consequently, the land is now a staging ground of the world imperialist system. Parts of the world capitalist system have unleashed an economic-financial war against another part, once a peer.

The enigma, or limitation, of this power show, essentially an economic war, by the part is itself getting hurt with its moves, financial and economic, as it tries to hurt its opposition with the moves. This is one of the limitations of this economic-financial war against Russia—one of the entanglements the world capitalist system finds itself in its intricately interconnected and interdependent capitals. It’s one of the characteristics of imperialist capital.

The cost-benefit ratio or the opportunity cost of this war is yet to be calculated. The cost or benefit is to be calculated in terms of capitals’ direct gain or loss, and in terms of cost the citizens, taxpayers, reproductive power and capacity, and labour under control of the concerned capitals is making, and will make in total. There’ll be ultimate calculation at the end of this war: How much cost Russia paid and how much Russia’s opponents?

Capitals are to reconcile this economy of war; and this has to be done in comparison to the geostrategy and geotactics the capitals are driving to win and secure turf.

The immediate gain is being made by the capital in the war industry and its accessories including a part of banking, finance and mining. But, a part of banking, finance and mining is making a payment for this war. Ultimately, this cost will be socialised—transferred to the wider society, and to the source that produces profit, the labour. Thus, to the capitals waging this war, this war is ultimately profitable.

But, no incertitude that taxpayers in countries have already begun to pay for the war the capitals are waging in the name of punishing Russia. This amount of payment by the taxpayers will increase not only in countries directly waging the war, but also in countries not at all involved with this war. In some countries, the political turf for governance will turn hot for the present faction of the ruling capital—a part of arithmetic of this war.

Whatever the last calculation of gain and loss, the work of redrawing the map of hegemony by the world imperialists has begun as Russia will make a gain in a number of terms. At the end of this part of fire spewing war, as compromises will follow, the dominating part of the world capitalist system has to give away a certain amount of space to Russia—a net gain that will be by Moscow. Now, that, extent and form of space, is being ascertained in capital cities and cities including Versailles in formal and informal meetings.

Ukraine has been made a pawn in this war. The land now shrouded with sadness has been pushed forward as a proxy. The war alliance NATO has said it unequivocally—fuel for war will be supplied, but no direct stepping in the line of fire, to face the line of fire, it’s Ukraine. So the people in Ukraine are paying the price as the leadership there has yet to reject the imperialist game plan.

Ukraine is exhibiting without any screen of fog the increasing contradiction on the world stage of capitals. It will increase further in the coming days as capitals have no other way than engaging into heightened conflict. Its major indicator is the world markets of major/strategic commodities and finance following the Ukraine conflict. The world markets of these commodities have turned out as a major war front since ensuing of the conflict.

This increasing contradiction is a major threat to peoples in countries and to world peace, which finds no alternative other than people’s movement against imperialist war, and its source—private capital. Flight path of capitals’ contradiction is unknown even to the capitals involved in the contradiction/competition. Today’s Europe is the evidence. None assumed such a bloody conflict in the metropolis of the world capitalist system. This was shown years ago, by turning Yugoslavia one of imperialism’s battle ground. Dismantling of the USSR has not spared Europe, especially NATO from conflict, although the capitalist system dreamed for peaceful market days since it found its enemy—USSR—in vanquished condition. This is the “mystery” of capital. The Ukraine conflict has once again shown this “mystery”. Capital can’t escape this “mystery”. Coming days, after this thick cloud over Ukraine subsides, will show some more similar “mysteries” in different forms; and that’s the reason for organising anti-imperialist people’s movement.

[Farooque Chowdhury writes from Dhaka]

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Vol 54, No. 39, March 27 - April 2, 2022