India-China Ties

Four years after the deadly Galwan border clash in eastern Ladakh the ice cracked between India and China. They ended border impasse to some extent on October 21, and two days later Prime Minister NarendraModi and President Xi Jinping held their first bilateral meeting in five years on the margins of Brics summit in Kazan, Russia. What transpired between Modi and Xi was not made public but this kind of side-line diplomacy has very little impact on the ground reality. This time both sides have agreed on patrolling and grazing arrangement in traditional areas along the Line of Actual Control—LAC—which saw hand-to-hand clashes in recent years. The Galwan clashes were the first fatal confrontation between the two sides since 1975. They fought with clubs and sticks because as per 1996 agreement, the use of guns and explosives near the border is prohibited. Several rounds of talks between diplomats and military officials in the last four years had not really resulted any major breakthrough. So this ‘October understanding’ is hailed as a grand success. Due to strained border stand-off business and people-to-people relations suffered enormously much to the disadvantage of India.

The Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India has slowed down considerably since the Galwan crisis in 2020. In truth some of this slow-down started much earlier amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting India’s high-growth industries. It remains to be seen whether new border deal could ease India’s staggering trade deficit with China. Indian markets are full of Chinese goods and much publicised and yet less explained Modi’s ‘make in India’ rhetoric remains a big joke.

The two sides are likely to move from the newly agreed disengagement to de-escalation and then to de-induction, meaning to restrict the number of forces deployed in a zone. While it is a long-drawn process, the decision to agree to restore a measure of normalcy on the border creates diplomatic and political space for both countries to re-engage on regional, global and other issues.

Whether they will be able to settle the boundary question in any foreseeable future is anybody’s guess. The root cause is an ill-defined 3,440 km (2,100 mile)-long boundary in the wilderness of the Himalayas left by history. The original culprits were the British rulers of India. Then their Indian heirs inherited the British Empire’s ‘forward policy’ and its adverse consequences as well. Rivers, lakes and snow-caps mean the actual line of control often gets blurred and shifted, bringing soldiers face to face at many points, leading to violent confrontation. The Chinese and Indians as well are reportedly building infrastructures in ‘disputed areas’ to facilitate military movement easier, creating a situation of ‘no war, no peace’ for all seasons.

For one thing Modi never accused China of illegal incursion. On the contrary what he said regarding Chinese advance went against the hawks in the Indian establishment. After becoming Prime Minister Modi made five official trips to China and held 18 meetings with Xi without raising any contentious issue on any occasion. In truth on 19th June, 2020 he gave his ‘infamous’ clean chit to China saying ‘neither anyone entered our territory, nor any outsider encroached within our border’. Congress Party has been continually attacking Modi for his abject surrender to China without really substantiating their allegations. They are actually playing with the gallery with an eye to the vote market. The hard fact is that the Himalayan border reality has not changed much since the days of Nehru. And it is unlikely to change radically anytime soon, no matter what the Modis and RajnathSinghs are saying or not saying.

This border dispute cannot be resolved amicably to the satisfaction of all stakeholders concerned unless both sides agree not to disagree on some kind of accommodation. Tragically enough, neither India nor China would like to alter their stated positions on the volatile border.

25-10-2024

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 20, Nov 10 - 16, 2024