Is the Ukraine War Finished

A world without war is unthinkable. No matter which warring party wins or loses, no matter under what name or reason, the war is waged, in the end people suffer. No matter how wars are justified or defended or trivialised, they all serve the interests of ruling classes which are in conflict with other ruling classes. No war, past or present, has ever been started to serve the toilers, even if they are and have sometimes, been fought for national interests. Not that those who are hawking jingoism and in combat mood round the clock don’t talk of peace. They do. But their peace is continuation of war by another means—diplomacy. All the tens of thousands of people crossing the Mediterranean and English Channel, fleeing conflict, hunger and poverty are dying. How many war orphans are roaming around the world, in refugee camps is anybody’s guess.

Speculation is rife that with Donald Trump in the White House the chances of freezing the Russia-Ukraine war seem bright though experts are divided over the fate of Middle East escalation in recent months.

For the first time, Zelensky has said the war could be ended without getting back all of Ukrainian territories from Russia. In an interview with Sky News on November 29, Zelensky said the “hot phase” of the war could end if NATO offered security guarantees for the part of Ukraine currently under Kyiv’s control. He reiterated the same stance while talking to the Japanese news agency Kyodo News. This is a major shift in Zelensky’s war policy. His victory plan seems to be falling flat. He made a rare admission to Kyodo News that it would be difficult for the Ukrainian army to retake land they have lost to Russia through military means. All this frank admission after huge military aid from the US. America under Biden has been the largest provider of weapons and technical expertise to Ukraine. According to the US State Department, Washington has so far provided $64 billion in military ‘aid’ to Ukraine since February 2022.

Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally seized it from Ukraine in 2014 and has since taken about 80 percent of the Donbas—which is comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk—as well as more than 70 percent of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and small parts of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.

For one thing, public opinion in Ukraine is also shifting. More and more Ukrainians are too eager to see an end to the war, rather than an all-out victory. According to a Gallop poll released on November 19, 52 percent of Ukrainians would like the war to end as soon as possible, even if it involves conceding territory.

Russia is unlikely to drop its conditions for a truce and negotiations, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO quest and surrendering the four provinces Moscow claims as part of Russia but doesn’t fully control, a demand rejected by Ukraine.

Whether Russia’s western adversaries like it or not, Putin is in no hurry. He can now bargain from a position of strength. The hard reality is against Zelensky; he is steadily losing land and facing manpower shortages. While still intent on NATO membership, he has no option but to go to the negotiating table.

For the time being nobody is offering any realistic plan to end the war. The Trump lobby is shooting arrows in the air. The American defence industry has benefited enormously from this war at the expense of Ukrainians and now construction boom is likely to follow if war stops—it will take decades to rebuild Ukraine.

Trump advisers propose Ukraine concessions to Russia. And NATO membership for Ukraine is now off the table but analysts doubt feasibility of Trump’s quick resolution promise, in 24 hours.

05-12-2024

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 26, Dec 22 - 28, 2024