Syria after Assad

Those who have been opposed to the Assad regime in Syria have cited its human rights violations to argue that no tears need to be shed over its sudden and dramatic ouster. However, these critics of the outgoing regime must face the wider question of whether there are any prospects of the outgoing regime being replaced by anything better from the perspective of human rights. The main rebel group with its previous violent and sectarian record provides hardly any hope of any change for the better.

Whatever its other failures, the Assad regime had a well-established record of providing pluralist governance under which various communities with diverse faiths and cultures–Shias, Sunnis, Christians, others–could co-exist without discrimination and without being tormented based on faith or sect. This cannot be said of the main rebel group HTS, with its Al-Qaeda (AQ) origins, which may have toned down its war cries recently to gain wider acceptability but its record, speaks of being intolerant towards other faiths or sects, in particular for its hostility towards the Shias. The Christian minority in Syria, which includes descendants of some of the earliest Christians, is also most unlikely to feel safe for long under any administration that may be dominated by the HTS.

Due to the centrality of the Palestine issue in this region and the immense sufferings of the Palestinians in recent times, questions arise regarding the impact of the recent changes in Syria on the Palestinians. Clearly the position of the Palestinians has weakened as the axis of resistance which has been providing support and solidarity to the Palestinian cause has been weakened.

Several reports have appeared regarding a relationship of cooperation and understanding between the Syrian rebel forces including the HTS and Israel. Already Israel is showcasing a strategy of dismantling Syria’s military capabilities.

While a big majority of the Palestinians are Sunni Muslims, it is in fact the predominantly Shia axis of resistance that has been in the frontlines of providing the most active help to the Palestinians and its weakening is a setback for the Palestinian resistance too, at least in the short-term.

The UN documented arbitrary detentions, executions of opponents and other human rights violations in HTS-controlled areas. At the same time, a report by Human Rights Watch has brought out the terrible human rights situation prevailing in the areas of the rebel groups controlled by Turkey.

While there is a lot of uncertainty regarding what kind of new government will emerge in Syria, there are no strong reasons to suggest that from a perspective of peace and justice it will be a better government compared to the ousted regime.

No doubt the end of any civil war is always good but the problem is that there is no indication just now that the Syrian civil war has ended.

Turkey’s President Erdogan has already shown the extent of his hostility towards the Kurds and it remains to be seen how this hostility may clash with the USA in the context of the US-guided Kurd groups. The fall of the Syrian regime offers a poignant reflection on the fragility of alliances, the calculus of survival, and the price of inertia.

The prisoners who have been freed certainly have cause to celebrate. The Sunnis who constitute a big majority of the population in Syria can celebrate for their own narrow reasons of a minority Shia leadership regime being ousted after several decades as happened in Iraq earlier. But beyond this, from a wider perspective of justice and peace, there is no reason yet to see recent events as a victory for the forces of peace and justice.

[Contributed by Bharat Dogra]

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 27, Dec 29, 2024 - Jan 4, 2025