India’s Relations with Its Neighbours

India has a chequred history of living with strained relations with its neighbours since the days of Nehru. The hawks in Delhi, past and present, have developed a habit to think they have the birth right to act as a regional power, rather a big brother, albeit South Asian countries at no point of time recognised India’s superior status.

India-Pakistan relations, however, have been calm since February 2021 when they brokered a deal to end cross-border violence along the contentious Line of Control (LoC). But the less publicised TRUCE proved brittle in 2024 when India’s Jammu & Kashmir witnessed a surge in Pakistan-backed terrorist actions, dashing hope for lasting peace in the region. The pause in military activity was necessary for Pakistan as its army was heavily engaged with Afghanistan, Baloch insurgency and Pakistani Taliban in the western sector.

Right now, India is grappling with several South Asian challenges from China’s latest inroads in Nepal—India’s traditional backyard—to serious tensions with Bangladesh after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina who is now in safe house enjoying hospitality of New Delhi. India is yet to react on the Bangladesh interim government’s request for the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. For one thing Sheikh Hasina, however, retains legal right to challenge the request under Indian law.

With Mayanmar’s civil war intensified and the Arakan Army rebel group holding a huge territory bordering India’s north-eastern states where Manipur is still burning because of continuing ethnic riots between Kukis and Meitis the region may be further destabilised as the possibility of spill-over of violence is very much real. Unless India and Bangladesh work together in minimising the Arakan effect as Mayanmar shares a 170-mile border with Bangladesh, they are going to suffer. For India only favourable news comes from Sri Lanka where an ex-Marxist is now President who would like to improve bilateral ties with New Delhi, much to the dismay of China. Maybe Sri Lanka is an exception. The general atmosphere in the region is very much anti-Indian.

But it is China that matters most in India’s foreign policy orientation despite an agreement to maintain tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control [LAC] in the Himalayas as the fresh disputes are arising after China’s unilateral declaration of two new counties in Hotan Prefacture as parts of these regions fall in the Indian Union Territory of Ladakh. If anything, India has never accepted the Chinese position. In other words, there is not much to cheer about the recent thaw in India-China relationship, though the exercise was hailed as a great step forward in diplomacy, both here and abroad. A new round of India-China cold war is in the making as Beijing has just approved the controversial mega dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra) in the Tibetan Autonomous Region.

The dam on the lower reaches of the Tsangpo is expected to be the world’s largest hydroelectric plant and could generate three times the power [nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) annually] of the Three Gorges Dam. This project was included in China’s 14th five-year plan from 2021-2025.

The proposed dam has long been a source of friction between China and its downstream neighbours, with India and Bangladesh repeatedly raising objections about China’s dam construction plan upstream of the Brahmaputra River, a critical source of fresh water for both countries. While New Delhi has limited options, better to say no options, to prevent China from building the DAM within its territory, but it would surely cast fresh uncertainty over bilateral relations which had been on the mend after the LAC understanding last year. The Chinese side, however, said in 2023, the project could benefit China, India and Bangladesh, if the countries were to cooperate. But one thing is certain that it is going to ruin Tibet’s fragile eco-system. And tragically enough the Tibetans have no democratic space to protest, even peacefully, against attacks on their lives and environment.

It is ultimately about trust, and it is no secret that given the prevailing super-charged situation, India and China don’t trust each other. Nor does Bangladesh trust India. ‘South Asian’ drama continues to be a tragedy!

05-01-2025

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 30, Jan 19 - 25, 2025