‘Peace Talk is Academic’

Yet another anniversary of Russia-Ukraine war is round the corner. US President Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed deal-maker, did not as promised on the campaign trail, manage to broker an end to the war in Ukraine on day one of his return to the White House. During his first week in office, Trump and the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine continued to stake out their negotiating positions ahead of a widely anticipated US-led push to stop the conflict. At the time of writing Russian forces are slowly but steadily tightening the noose around the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a logistical hub whose main supply lines are under threat almost three years after the war started. Russia outguns and outnumbers Ukraine. As things are it arguably has the upper hand on the battlefield at a huge human cost, of course. Russia is said to have suffered around 427,000 troops killed or injured (about 40 per square mile). Whether Russia can continue its current level of military spending is open to question, but the Kremlin strategists think they will be able to do it just long enough that Ukraine’s resistance crumbles and its European backers lose interest.

 America’s military-industrial complex is the main beneficiary in this proxy war led by NATO in disguise, while Zelensky being the pawn in this great gamble will surely go down in history as the ‘worst enemy ‘ of Ukrainians despite his stubborn resistance to the Russian offensive. Right now the Ukrainian military is struggling with desertions and low morale.

Trump’s 24-hour utopia has just vanished. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said he had reached out to President Xi during a phone call and described China as having “a great deal of power over the [Russia-Ukraine] situation”. Ironically, there is a grain of black humour when the man who vowed to end the war within 24 hours asks China to step in. China, in reality, proposed a 12-point peace plan when the war was just one year old. But neither Moscow nor Kyiv would like to endorse the Chinese idea of peace. Last year Beijing again in collaboration with Brazil launched the Group of Friends for Peace on the Ukrainian crisis, which includes several other countries. However, the warring parties were not interested in it. Zelensky even called the China-Brazil peace initiative “destructive” for his country. At a time when Russia and Ukraine believe they must keep fighting to redefine the frontline border to their mutual advantage, Trump’s proposals will not work, albeit US President has some advantages to threaten both Russia and Ukraine if they don’t agree to a ceasefire. As Russia wants to take back Kursk which is now under Ukraine’s occupation, and has full control over four Ukrainian regions in the east, Zelensky is bent on joining NATO or some sort of collective security guarantee, even at the cost of losing some territory. To liberate Kursk Russia has deployed North Korean troops and Russians are slowly taking back territory in Kursk as well.

Both America and Russia admit that China is a factor in having lasting peace in the region. Last year at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok Putin described Brazil, China, and India as trusted partners and repeatedly thanked China for its balanced position on the conflict. To some extent, the same is true of India. Much depends on Kyiv and its European supporters whether they would like to give peace a chance or continue their undeclared campaign of weakening Russia economically and militarily forever.

Unlike the Vietnam era global mass upsurge against war, the anti-war movement is hardly making any news anywhere in the world. Progressives do not organise masses against an unjust war. Communists are swayed by nationalism and refuse to go against their ruling classes. Only anarchists, in some isolated pockets of Europe, issue statements urging workers to oppose the war efforts of their rulers by way of stopping defence production and paralysing port operations. In absence of any physical protest their appeal makes little impact on toilers and war continues affecting ordinary people.

 06-02-2025

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 34, Feb 16 - 22, 2025