‘At a Crossroads’?

In geo-politics, a momentous shift is taking place that might lead to the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. Poor Zelensky is now realising ‘proxies are proxies’, and they are likely to end up in most cases at ‘doormats of history’. The way he was humiliated at the White House speaks volumes about the imperial arrogance of America. Having failed to convince the Trump administration that a peace deal on Russian terms is not acceptable Zelensky finally tried to mobilise European support under the leadership of Britain and France but only 18 countries participated in much publicised Ukraine summit held in London without committing much other than the some financial help. As there is no consensus on the course of action after the Trump-Zelensky talks collapsed they are now planning to assemble a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine against Russia. Britain and France have already pledged troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping. However, the possibility of deployment of peacekeepers is uncertain as Ukraine is not yet ready to a Washington-brokered cease-fire and peace agreement. That some European countries are interested in continuing war is a fact of life. After America, it is now the turn of Europeans to sell weapons to Ukraine. Britain has pledged a loan of 1.6 million pounds to Ukraine to enhance Kyiv’s military capability. In truth, it will be used to purchase British air-defense systems and missiles to boost ultimately Britain’s defence industry and infrastructure while aggravating the destruction of Ukraine further.

The only positive outcome of the three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war at the moment is there are visible fissures in NATO and Europeans’ consistent efforts to isolate Russia have failed. For one thing, European countries are actually trying to prolong the conflict by propping up Zelensky “with their bayonets in the form of peacekeeping units”. But Russia’s isolation is coming to an end slowly but steadily, as the US Defence Secretary has ordered US Cyber Command to halt offensive operations against Russia. Europeans are desperately trying to derail the America–Russia rapprochement process as they still think Ukraine may get back its lost territory by continuing the war. Both London and Paris are urging the White House to offer what is known as “a backstop” to a potential European peace-keeping force in the event of a deal between Kyiv and Moscow. A US backstop means possibly air cover and surveillance. In other words, the European hawks are still not certain whether they will be able to withstand Russian onslaught in case the cease-fire fails.

Meanwhile, the NATO chief has asked Zelensky to make peace first with the Trump government and finalise the ‘minerals’ deal. Ukraine looks ready to clinch the deal because it has no other option to save the country. Even if the minerals deal were to be saved, the “security” it would offer Ukraine—and Europe—is far from clear, albeit Britain and France are trying to convince Trump that Europe can defend itself, but ‘Russia will only respect any ceasefire that comes with the backing of the United States’. Come what may, these Europeans are in no position to defy the US and if the White House refuses to accept their peace draft, they have nothing to do.

Despite all the noises emanated from London’s Ukraine summit, the idea of a sustainable peace agreement consequently remains remote, even if the breakdown of relations between Zelensky and Trump can be patched up. Without American support–assuming Europe fails to fill the gap–Ukraine would be forced to sue for peace on Russian terms. But once Trump succeeds in getting his stake in Ukraine, the negotiations enter a new phase. In any case Ukraine stands to lose, European support or no support.

‘Trumpism–allied with India’s Modi, Hungary’s Orban, and Argentina’s Milei, as well as the fascist parties of Germany, Austria, Britain, Italy, France, Spain, etc.–aims to remake the world under the domination of new forms of fascism–over the ashes of Ukraine and Gaza’. Ukrainians and Palestinians are the losers in this gambit. Even if America partially withdraws from the war, nothing will remain the same in the Atlantic Alliance, and the British Prime Minister’s contention that ‘we are at a crossroads of history’ may come true.

03-03-2025

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 38, March 16 - 22, 2025