“Coalition of the (UN) Willing”

European hawks gathered in Paris on March 27 under the banner of “Coalition of the Willing” to decide on how to help Ukraine in the war and in the post-war situation. The purpose of the meeting was to assemble a group of countries willing to put boots on the ground and planes in the air to guard the peace between Russia and Ukraine. What was commonly referred to as a peacekeeping force has now been dubbed a “reassurance force” and nobody really knows what form it will take. Or who will command it? After a month and four meetings of coalition partners and warnings from Russia that any troops’ presence would be rejected, what consensus emerged from the summit was more forceful condemnation of Russia. There were nearly 30 countries in attendance at the group’s Paris meeting, convened by French President Emmanuel Macron. But most of them were mere passengers.

Only Britain and France have publicly promised to put troops on the ground as part of the force, and the all-important backing of Donald Trump and his top team looks unlikely. So, at the end, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says there has been progress, but tangible progress remains elusive. Ukrainians themselves think that without American presence, no security will be guaranteed, even if Britain and France send troops to protect their country. Zelensky said Ukraine was hoping for a security guarantee from the US as well as Europe.

With America bypassing them in making a peace deal with Russia, they are restless and trying very hard to remain in war games. Even if the war ends, the immediate possibility of which doesn’t look bright, the tussle over the reconstruction business will continue. Originally, they mooted the idea of European peace-keeping forces to monitor the ceasefire, but Washington appeared reluctant. Now they say a British-French military delegation will be sent to Ukraine to scout Kyiv’s needs and what can be done to support its army–and that troops would be deployed as a ‘reassurance force’ to uphold any ceasefire agreed with Russia. Finally, they vowed more ferociously than before to impose tougher sanctions on Russia. In reality, they are now fighting over post-war Ukraine. Much depends on Americans whether they will allow Europeans to share the booty.

But sanctions have so far failed to cripple Russian economy. For Moscow, sanctions came as a blessing in disguise as they opened new channels, strengthening multi-polarity. Even Americans now admit that the days of unipolar world are over. And the rise of China is a factor that they can hardly ignore anymore. If Trump is showing his eagerness to make a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war it is because they want a Sino-Russian split. Trump thinks he could repeat the Nixon strategy in reverse by keeping Russia away from China. But Putin’s Russia is not Brezhnev’s Soviet Union. Nor is it Gorbachov’s crumbling empire. Being a rising capitalist power with nuclear teeth ideologically and politically, Russia is now closer to China than ever before. In those days the contradiction between Russia and China was antagonistic. In the propaganda war, Radio Peking’s theme song was Soviet social imperialism. It is not the case today. They are in the same boat. Their interests are identical and it is not that easy to un-unite Russia and China at this juncture. Moscow has been able to fight the adverse impact of sanctions because of China’s unwavering support to Russia. Shortly before the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, Xi reaffirmed Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow in a video call with Putin, hours after Trump’s second inauguration in January.

For one thing, Putin has not only restored the country’s military might but also redefined its global identity. No Western power thought Russia would bounce back after the post-Soviet chaos. And it is their main concern today. Their agony is multiplying with Trump’s America withdrawing from Europe, at least partially affecting their economy in no minor ways as Trump’s tariff war shows.

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 43, Apr 20 - 26, 2025