Continuing Conflict

In the first 15 weeks of this year 2025 most of the existing crisis situations have not shown any signs of getting resolved while new ones have also appeared.

The only positive achievement is that the relations between the two biggest nuclear weapon powers, the USA and Russia, are at least better than they were under the Biden administration. On the other hand, US-China relations have deteriorated further, and talk of the possibility of a US-China war in the near future continues to increase. US-Iran negotiations are taking place, which is good, but there is still much fear of the possibility of a wider regional war in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the situation has worsened further in Gaza as not only have the genocidal actions continued after the breakdown of the fragile ceasefire, in addition the increasing possibility of stepped-up aggressive actions for driving out Palestinians from Gaza has been in the news.

In Ukraine, hopes of a very early end to the war held out earlier by President Trump have been dashed, and now there is increasing uncertainty regarding peace prospects. Relations of most European countries with Russia have not improved, as some of the most influential leaders of these countries chose not to make use of new emerging opportunities for this, instead remaining trapped in earlier, narrow, non-rational thinking of permanent hostility.

New tensions have emerged due to the USA’s increasingly hostile actions towards leading neighbouring countries like Canada and Mexico, as well as towards smaller ones like Panama.

Greenland faces increasing prospects of being taken over to various extents by the USA, while the entire Arctic region also faces higher chances of big-power rivalries and increased chances of them clashing over control of vast untapped resources and emerging trade routes, following melting of ice, with this race and rivalry also leading to increasing ecologic havoc in the region.

In Sudan, the very violent civil war continues to cause widespread distress, and with civil war possibilities re-appearing in South Sudan too, the merger of these conflicts can worsen the situation further, particularly with wealthy foreign countries supporting rival sides, increasing the possibility of more destructive weapons becoming available.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo this year has seen the escalation of violence linked to rebel groups aided by neighbouring countries, and there may be further complicating factors linked to more powerful distant countries with their sight on vast mineral resources.

Efforts of most powerful forces to gain control over minerals, oil, gas, farmland and other resources of distant lands, as well as the willingness to use violence for this, has become more brazen.

Forever wars are already very destructive, and these wars and conflicts make it impossible to secure the cooperation of various nations and people for the most urgent task of protecting the environment.

What is more, wars, war preparations, and arms races are themselves emerging as the biggest polluters.

Hence the issue is not one of looking at various crisis and conflict situations in isolation of each other, as this can at best lead to resolving of one crisis with great difficulty while a new and perhaps even more damaging one emerges, as the entire system overburdened with greed, rivalry and urge for dominance has become highly prone to going from one crisis to another.

[Contributed by Bharat Dogra]

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 47, May 18 - 24, 2025