The Sun is setting for the USA–I

Ashok Nag

The world is now at a crossroads of the millennium, where an existing hegemonic power is declining, much like the fall of London Bridge when the sun was setting on the British Empire. Yet, it remains uncertain from which direction the sun will rise again.

The history of human civilisations, when viewed through the lens of a few dominant powers exercising control over extensive territories, populations, and wealth, spans only the past 5,000 years. People know these dominant powers as empires. The etymological root of the English word “Empire” is traced to the Latin word “Imperium”, to which the word “Imperialism” is also traced. The word ‘Empire’ has many connotations, but the dominant one centres on themes of exercising power over a vast territory through military supremacy and concentrating wealth in the hands of a small group of people. However, one important point that is lost in the conundrum of the search for the origin of such empires is that this unbridled quest for territorial dominance is not a unique trait of Homo sapiens. Many large mammals like lions actively seek dominance and control over a large territory for food, mating rights, and safety. Walter Heape, a pioneer in reproductive biology, thus wrote: “ according the recognition of territorial rights, one of the most significant attributes of civilisation, was not evolved by man, but has ever been an inherent factor in the life history of all animals.”(Heape 1931, page 74) In other words, the pursuit of unrestricted access to the resources essential for survival, and available within a defined area, is a characteristic shared by all living beings, particularly those at higher levels of evolutionary development. Imperialism, therefore, represents an evolutionary quagmire from which humanity has yet to emerge. The current dominant imperial power–the American Empire–provides little hope for ushering in a new era.

The difference between mammals and human beings in their respective territorial behaviours is that animals are driven by their limited need for livelihood and procreation, while it is the insatiable greed for wealth and its derivative but unreachable urge for immortality that drives the territorial behaviour of human beings. Building monuments, creating sculptures of themselves, and promoting imperial iconography are some of the ways that emperors sought immortality for themselves. Unfortunately, regardless of their global reach or extent of dominance, every empire’s ultimate destiny is to fade into oblivion. A rich and extensive literature exists about the fall of the Roman Empire, often with a great deal of tristesse about the past, as the French say. However, no dark age has ever truly descended upon the earth following the collapse of an empire, no matter how advanced or productive it might have been. Humanity has always moved forward, most likely, under the rise of a new dominant power. Thus, the fall of the US Empire is inevitable and need not be lamented.

Despite the significant contributions made by each empire of the past in various fields essential for the progress of civilisation, every one of them ultimately fell, due to significant internal contradictions or defeat by external forces. Edward Gibbon, a chronicler of the Roman Empire per excellence, whose eloquence and eye for detail prevailed over a dispassionate unravelling of the causes of the ‘Fall of the Roman Empire’, had identified four reasons for the fall of the Roman Empire. These are: (1) The Injuries of Time and Nature, (2) The Hostile Attacks of The Barbarians and Christians, (3) The Use And Abuse of The Materials, and (4) The Domestic Quarrels of The Romans. Out of these four causes, the first cause, number one, is a lemon, as it is true for all things on earth and in heaven. Gibbon’s description of the third cause is a description of the plundering of the wealth of the Roman Empire by the vanquishers of the Empire and thus a consequence of the fall and not a cause of it. The two remaining causes- one internal and one external apply to all empires that have emerged in the last 5000 years. These two intertwined causes reinforce each other.

Gibbon apart, there exists a rich literature on the causes of the fall of empires. Various authors have put forward a cornucopia of reasons–internal as well as external- for the fall of these empires. For example, Arnold Toynbee’s “A Study of History”, comprising 12 volumes, is another monumental study of the fall of empires in the last 5000 years. Toynbee identified the following three reasons for the fall of any empire.

“[T]he nature of the breakdowns of civilisations can be summed up in three points: a failure of creative power in the minority, an answering withdrawal of mimesis on the part of the majority, and a consequent loss of social unity in the society as a whole”. (page 6, Volume IV)

The highly nuanced analysis of the historical evolution of civilisations by Toynbee demonstrates a deep understanding of social dynamics within large empires. In particular, his last two points are the most relevant and important ones. Both these points refer to the increasing disharmony among the social classes and interest groups that tear apart the social fabric of any large empire. He has also used the term “internal proletariat” to describe the dominant majority of an Empire.

The “mimesis on the part of the majority” refers to a growing chasm, mistrust, and a feeling of complete distrust between the elites and the common people. The ‘creative minority,’ a euphemism for the ruling elite, succumbs to their hubris and starts believing in their immortality. This illusion of invincibility of a regime is one of the reasons for an empire’s defeat by another rising power. This article examines the extent to which the reigning global superpower is on the path to its inevitable demise, while also speculating on the emergence of a potential new superpower.

Recently, Ray Dalio, the American billionaire and founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, released a book titled The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail (2021). In it, Dalio identifies 18 key factors that he argues have historically driven the rise and fall of empires, economic systems, and global orders. However, many of these “determinants” could be more accurately seen as consequences of an empire’s decline rather than its root causes. For instance, factors such as the “decline of global power,” “the balance of internal and external pressures,” and “the influence of culture and ideology” are more symptomatic of an empire’s collapse than the underlying causes of that decline. Given his financial background, Ray has rightly identified the financial factors that signal the impending dethroning of a ruling empire. These factors are “The cycle of debt” and the “Role of currency”. When an imperial government relies more on debt, largely funded by external sources, it highlights the unsustainability of the global power currently held by the empire. In addition to debt, another source of funding for an imperial power is the dominance of its currency, which serves as a globally accepted financial instrument for savings and reserves held by central banks. The ongoing de-dollarization efforts by a group of countries will have a far-reaching impact on the US economy. The following quote from a research article by J P Morgan provides a clear picture of the impending scenario:

Fundamentally, de-dollarisation would shift the balance of power among countries, and this could, in turn, reshape the global economy and markets. The impact would be most acutely felt in the US, where de-dollarisation would likely lead to a broad depreciation and underperformance of US financial assets versus the rest of the world.

USA–the ruling empire of the world
Territorial dominance is a key feature of any empire. This is true for the United States of America, also. When the thirteen colonies of the British Empire declared their independence on July 4, 1776, by forming the United States of America, the combined area of the thirteen colonies was approximately 828,000 square miles. The current size of the USA is approximately 3.8 million square miles (about 9.8 million square km) an increase of 4.6 times. This includes all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and various territories.

Before the Second World War, the United States had colonised many territories (see footnote 1). The word “colonised” may sound inapplicable to the USA, which is considered an epitome of democracy. In the words of Franklin Roosevelt, the USA is “a nation of many nationalities, many races, many religions-bound together by a single unity, the unity of freedom and equality.” This apparent contradiction in any characterisation of the American state is not a mere caviling about the nature of the American state. Some scholars have argued that the American state has a Janus-like face- one facing its citizens and another one facing the external world. This “external state” drives the imperial aspirations of America, the world’s greatest empire so far.

In the first half of the twentieth century, two world wars changed the nature, conduct, and methods of dominance of imperial powers. The term “world war” was first coined by August Niemann in his 1904 German novel Der Weltkrieg–Deutsche Träume (translated as World War: German Dreams). The novel was about a future war between major European powers, including Germany, France, and Russia, against Britain. This imagined war became a fact within a decade when the First World War broke out in 1914. The war, which lasted for 4 years, claimed the life of more than 16 million people.

In the wake of the devastation brought by World War I, a consensus gradually emerged amongst the national governments of widely different persuasions that a global consultative forum is an absolute necessity to avoid such a catastrophe. The League of Nations, the first international organisation established to “promote international co-operation and to achieve international peace and security,” was founded in January 1920. However, within two decades, World War II broke out, involving every nation of the world and resulting in a catastrophe of destruction on an unprecedented scale.

The United States emerged from the devastation of World War II as the world’s sole nuclear power, establishing itself as an unparalleled empire in human history. Although the USA did not join the League of Nations, it played a pivotal role in establishing the United Nations. Thus, the headquarters of the new Global Forum of Nations was located in New York, replacing Geneva, which had been the headquarters of the League of Nations.

After the formation of the United Nations, the US, despite its overwhelming military power, refrained from openly acquiring new territories for the sake of appearance. Nonetheless, its dealings with many countries remained imperial in substance. Even the independence granted to former colonies was often limited. For example, the Philippines became a US colony when Spain ceded it in 1898. On July 4, 1946, the Philippines gained full independence, but it was required to sign the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US, thereby allowing the United States to maintain a military presence on the islands. In 2022, the US had military bases in around 80 countries.

Unlike all earlier empires, including the British Empire, the US Empire has charted a new way of imposing its hegemony over the world through a seemingly innocuous process called globalisation. Apart from the UN, several international organisations were established to work out a common standard of inter-country functioning, dispute management, and imposing restrictions on the functioning of recalcitrant countries. The USA played a commanding role in setting up all these organisations. The most important global organisations are: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Trade Organisation (WTO) International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), World Health Organisation (WHO) and many others (see the Footnote 2). The United Nations’ tagline is “Peace, dignity, and equality on a healthy planet.” However, no imperial power, since the time of the Ancient Egyptian Empire in the third millennium BCE, has ever fully adhered to this maxim, and the reigning empire of the second millennium CE is no exception. The presence of the UN and other international organisations, however, has not deterred the US from taking unilateral action against foreign regimes, allegedly working against US interests. For example, the US and its allies invaded Iraq citing the need to disarm the regime of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Later, it turned out to be a deliberate false alarm to generate worldwide support for this invasion.

References:
Aladangady Aditya et al, October 18, 2023, Greater Wealth, Greater Uncertainty: Changes in Racial Inequality in the Survey of Consumer Finances, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Allison Graham, 2017, Destined for War–Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, New York.

(To be continued)

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 47, May 18 - 24, 2025