And Now Water War

Safwat Zargar

India has decided to hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 “In abeyance” as one of several steps taken in response to the brutal massacre of 26 tourists in south Kashmir’s Pahalgam.

A group of Pakistani and local militants is suspected to have carried out the terror strike, one of the deadliest since the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai in 2008.

The Indus River system is central to Pakistan’s water needs. Not surprisingly, the Pakistani government reacted strongly to India’s decision to walk away from the over six-decade-long water sharing agreement between the two countries. Pakistan warned India that any disruption to its water supply would be considered “an act of war”, which the country was prepared to respond, “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.”

Jal Shakti minister CR Patil has claimed that the Indian government will make sure that “not a drop of water” goes to Pakistan.

But rhetoric aside, what implications does India’s withdrawal from the treaty have for Pakistan? The suspension of the treaty implies that India is no longer accountable to Pakistan for using, regulating, or stopping the flow of the water of three western rivers–the Indus, the Chenab, and the Jhelum–allotted to Pakistan under the treaty.

But they refuted claims that India can immediately block the flow of water into Pakistan. While India does have the capacity to hurt Pakistan because of its position as an upper riparian state, building large dams in the seismically fragile Western Himalaya region can pose risks to its own people, the experts said.

A large part of Pakistan’s agriculture is dependent on the irrigation system and network of canals built around the Indus River system.

“The decision could have serious impacts on Pakistan’s economy, especially the agricultural sector, threatening the livelihoods of rural people,” said Dr Dan Haines, an associate professor in the department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London.

Haines, the author of Indus Divided: India, Pakistan and the River Basin Dispute, said the suspension of the treaty can have both short as well as long-term impacts on Pakistan.

“In the short term, Indian engineers could operate existing water-control infrastructure in ways that would harm Pakistani agriculture, for example by refilling reservoirs [upstream] and reducing downstream flows at the beginning of the crop-sowing season in the plains, which is just the time of year when Pakistani farmers need large amounts of water.”

For an impact in the longer run, India would have to build new dams “with large storage reservoirs, which could more severely reduce the amount of water available in Pakistan, or affect the timing of flows”, he said. But that needs time and resources, he added.

“This would take several years because such projects take a long time to design, finance and build, though perhaps some of India’s existing water-control plans could be adapted more quickly,” Haines added.

The suspension may be an advantage for India during a flood-like situation. “During high flood peaks in the rivers, I expect Indian water managers would release the water downstream so that it would flow to Pakistan, instead of allowing flood waters to spill over into Indian Territory,” Haines added.

Under the Indus Water Treaty, India has to share hydrological data with Pakistan so that the neighbouring country can predict floods and plan its irrigation needs accordingly. Now, India simply has no legal obligations to do that.

The disagreement over the water-sharing may also change the nature of politics in both countries.

A substantial chunk of the Indus River system flows through Jammu and Kashmir. As a result, Kashmir may become even more central to the discourse between the two neighbours. “The narrative of upper riparian India blocking water will be used for mobilisation and populist purposes,” pointed out Dr Medha Bisht, associate professor at South Asian University, New Delhi. “Why Kashmir is important for Pakistan’s survival might also come to the fore.”

The Indus Water Treaty is a water-sharing agreement reached between India and Pakistan in 1960, with the mediation of the World Bank, to establish terms for the use of water in the Indus River basin.

The dispute over water sharing had its genesis in the partition of British India in 1947 and division of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Originating from the Himalayas in Tibet, the 2,880 km long river empties into the Arabian Sea. The river flows through India for 800 km, covering states and union territories like Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Rajasthan. Apart from the main Indus River, the basin comprises five left bank tributaries–the Jhelum, the Chenab, the Ravi, the Beas and the Satluj. All of them flow through India before flushing into Pakistan.

Under the Indus Water Treaty, the waters of three eastern rivers–the Sutlej, the Ravi and the Beas–”shall be available for the unrestricted use of India”. Similarly, Article III of the treaty provides that Pakistan shall “receive for unrestricted use” of “all the waters of the Western Rivers–the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum–which India is under obligation to let flow”.

However, India, too, was allowed to use the water of western rivers for domestic and agricultural use. Overall, while Pakistan received 80% of the three western rivers, India was authorised to utilise only 20%.

The treaty also allowed India to generate hydroelectricity on the western rivers, provided that these projects are run-of-the-river hydroelectricity projects, which use the natural flow rate of water to generate electricity and do not store large amounts of water.

Under the treaty, India had to inform Pakistan before it started building a new hydropower project on the western rivers. The treaty mandated that India brief Pakistan about the design, location, hydrological and hydraulic data, including information on how the hydroelectricity generation may affect the flow of the western rivers. The treaty also made it binding on India to allow the Pakistan government’s experts to visit the region.

With India putting the treaty into “abeyance”, experts say, New Delhi may no longer comply with any of these clauses. “If one is not bound by a treaty, one can use water as per its needs. China has, anyway, been doing that with the Brahmaputra,” said Bisht, whose research interests include international relations, water governance, and diplomacy.

In January, India had raised serious concerns with Beijing after the Chinese government cleared the construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet close to the Indian border. With the relations between India and China in upheaval, the construction of the dam has fuelled anxieties in lower riparian countries like India and Bangladesh. Just as India is an upstream nation in the Indus river system, China enjoys a similar geographical advantage on the Brahmaputra River.

Even though it was signed way back in 1960, the Indus Water Treaty had largely remained insulated from multiple wars, terrorist attacks, and other skirmishes between the two nuclear-armed rivals. In fact, the treaty is widely considered as one of the longest-standing agreements between two countries over a transboundary river system.

But in recent years, the hostile relationship between the two neighbours has taken a toll on the pact. Last year, India had sent a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking renegotiation of the treaty.

Pakistan has repeatedly raised objections over the power projects built by India on the western rivers, even though the treaty allows it to.

Since 2006, both countries have been engaged in a prolonged dispute over India’s decision to construct two power projects in Jammu and Kashmir–the 330-megawatt Kishanganga project on the Jhelum River and the 850-megawatt Ratle project on the Chenab River. While the Kishenganga power project was inaugurated in 2018, the Ratle dam is under construction.

The dispute over the two power projects has dragged on for years owing to the differences in the implementation of the dispute-resolution mechanisms underlined within the treaty. For example, in case of a dispute between the two countries, the first platform to solve the issue is the Permanent Indus Commission.

 Are there legal ramifications for India as it has unilaterally walked out of the treaty?

Experts pointed out that technically India has not exited from the treaty as there is no exit clause in the Indus Water Treaty. All of them agreed that New Delhi has no reason to worry about other consequences, other than the threat of war issued by Pakistan.

[Source: Scroll.in]

Back to Home Page

Frontier
Vol 57, No. 48, May 25 - 31, 2025