The Sun is setting for USA–II

Ashok Nag

In the case of the fall of the Roman Empire, the causal factors behind the demise of an empire, though interrelated and mutually reinforcing, can be categorised into two types: internal and external. The internal factors are primarily rooted in the hubris of the ruling elite regarding their economic, military, and technological power. Two forces inherent to every nation-state predominantly shape the external factors: the desire for independence from the clutch of the empire and the ascent of a competing empire.

In the United States of America, human civilisation has witnessed the most powerful empire of all time as well as the most productive one. In terms of growth in knowledge, implementation of new technology, and social transformation in favour of individual emancipation from the stranglehold of tradition, the American Empire has no equal. However, the “external state” of the USA has tried its best to leverage the power of technology, particularly military technology, to bring the entire world under its hegemony. Therein lies the cause of its inevitable fall. It is beyond doubt that the sun has started setting on the horizon of the US Empire. The coronation of Donald Trump is the harbinger of this endgame. Why? The answer is blowing in the data.

Internal factors: Faltering Economic Growth:
Economic growth is a key factor in maintaining an empire’s dominance. An empire starts losing its sheen when it is no longer a vibrant, growing economy. The five-year moving average of the USA’s real GDP growth declined from around 4% in 2000 to less than 1% in 2011. The share of US GDP in the world’s GDP reached a peak of 32% in 2001 but came down to around 25% by 2022.

More importantly, several key countries within the United States’ sphere of influence experienced a significant decline in their share of global GDP in the period following 1990. The decline in the economic strength of the empire’s close ally exacerbates the weakening of the empire’s economic power.

Percentage Share of Selected Developed Countries in World GDP

Indebtedness of the Federal Government 

When an imperial state starts borrowing from the rest of the world on a sustained basis, it reveals its inability to generate enough surplus from its vassal states, either through tribute or by coercing them into purchasing military goods at inflated prices. The following graphs shows that US federal government is increasingly dependent on borrowed fund for its expenditure. Significantly, the imperial state is becoming more dependent on external borrowing. Initially, it may appear as an indication of strength, but very soon the creditors starts calling the tune.

Estimated Ownership of US Treasury Securities (2019-2023)

Cost of Sustaining Military Power
Military power is a sine qua non for any empire. To defend its sphere of influence from incursions by rival powers and to exploit the natural resources of vassal states on terms favourable to the centre, military supremacy is an absolute necessity. The USA’s share of military expenditure in the total expenditure of all countries stood at 37% in 2023(SIPRI Fact Sheet April 2024). In nominal terms, this expenditure as a percentage of nominal GDP has seen a marginal decline from 3.7 % in 2014 to 3.4% in 2023. However, in the long term, this share has seen a steep fall between 1951 and 2023. Similarly, the share of military expenditure as a percentage of Government spending has declined from around 12% in 2004-2012 to around 9% after 2020.
Source: SIPRI Fact Sheet April 2024

The above graphs indicate how the US is on a path of declining ability to finance its imperial hubris. The US government is surviving by borrowing indiscriminately from other developed countries, leveraging the strength of is currency and the willingness of many large countries like China to subscribe to US treasury bonds. The unquestionable military supremacy of the United States is a false guaranty for its continuation of imperialist power. In fact, the recent tariff war has shown that the emperor is naked. There is no better description of the emerging situation of the US Empire than the one provided by the Irish poet W.B. Yeats in his poem “The Second Coming,” written in 1919, following the end of the First World War.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, 

Internal conflict
In the history of empires, the United States stands as a unique empire because the individuals who were once the flag bearers–those loyal to the ruling British Empire–ultimately rose and rebelled against the empire they served. The underlying irony is that the 13 colonies, which declared independence and severed their political connections with Great Britain on July 4, 1776, were established through the displacement and genocide of the indigenous peoples, often referred to as Native Americans. Native Americans faced increasing marginalisation in the United States, while enslaved individuals, who began arriving in North America as commodities in the 16th century, became crucial for providing cheap labour in industries such as cotton, sugar, and tobacco plantations. A significant difference existed in the use of slave labour between the southern and northern states. The southern states heavily relied on slave labour for large-scale farming and plantations, whereas the northern states focused more on manufacturing and industry.

The substantial economic growth experienced by the U S in the mid-19th century was largely due to the industrial expansion of the northern states. This growth required skilled labour that slave labour could not provide, creating conflicting demands between the regions. These differences made it unsustainable to maintain slavery as a widespread practice.

The northern states strongly opposed extending slavery to new western territories. However, the US Congress passed the Kansas-Nebraska Act in 1854, allowing slavery in all new western states. These starkly opposing views on the legality of slavery eventually led to the Civil War when Abraham Lincoln became president in 1860. The war, initiated by seven southern states in April 1861, concluded in May 1865 with the northern states emerging victorious.

During the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863. The proclamation declared that all persons held as slaves within the rebellious states were, and would henceforth be, free. However, the abolition of slavery was implemented in a manner that seemed half-hearted, aiming to integrate former slaves into mainstream society. In reality, even 160 years after the Emancipation Proclamation, the descendants of slaves in the USA still face challenges in achieving equal treatment compared to their white American counterparts. The legacy of slavery and systemic inequalities persists, highlighting the ongoing struggle for true equality and integration into mainstream society. Some of the ways this persistence of racial discrimination continues to manifest are discussed below. 

Criminal Justice System Bias:
At the end of 2023, around 1.8 million people in the USA were incarcerated, the largest in the world. The 10 states with the highest incarceration rates are all former slave states. An organization that monitors racial and ethnic disparities (prisonpolicy.org) has provided the following statistics:

Black Americans in the general US population -  13% +
The ratio of Blacks in the total number of people serving life, life without parole, or “virtual life”-  37%+
Ratio of Blacks in the total number of people serving life, life without parole, or “virtual life”-  48% +
Arrest rate for Black vs white Americans (2020) per 100,000 people in that community-  4,223 vs. 2,092

Income Inequality:
Although Black Americans have experienced a boom in their economic conditions in recent times, there has not been any significant change in income and wealth inequality between them and white Americans. The median income of White Alone households (non-Hispanic) was still 1.5 times that of Black Alone households in 2022. The graph below illustrates an increase in inequality up to 2017, followed by a decline during the COVID-19 period. A reversal of this trend appears to be occurring now. According to the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), households with a White, non-Hispanic householder had 10 times more wealth than those with a Black householder in 2021.

Political Representation
Until 2013, no more than one Black senator served at a time. The current presence of five Black senators is unprecedented. African Americans make up 14% of the US House of Representatives, which is comparable to their share of the population.

Educational Opportunities
A 2005 survey of Black Faculty at the 28 Nation’s Highest-Ranked Universities by The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education found that “blacks made up more than 5 percent of the total full-time faculty at only four institutions.” The highest percentage of black faculty was 6.4 percent at Columbia University. In another survey of Physicians in 1940, it was found that 9.7% of the population were Black, but only 2.8% of physicians were Black. In 2018, the corresponding figures were 12.8% and 5.4%.

External factors: Rise of a rival
For a declining empire, the emergence of a rival with the potential to challenge its dominance is of greatest concern. China is on the verge of becoming the World’s largest economy by 2030. The comparative growth of the two countries shows how quickly China is climbing up to the top.

Overexposure
To maintain its unparalleled hegemony across all countries, the USA maintains its active-duty troops in 178 countries. As of 2022, approximately 172 thousand military personnel are present in these countries. There are 750 military bases in 80 countries. To maintain such an extensive military network to rule over the world, a country needs a substantial economic surplus which, as we have seen above is no longer sustainable for the US.

Countries allied with the US, such as France, Germany, and others, are struggling to finance their participation in the imperial network led by the USA. The declining relative economic strength of these NATO partners is reflected in their decreasing share of the world’s GDP, as it has been shown in the table above.

(To be concluded)

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 48, May 25 - 31, 2025