Fire and Ceasefire

Finally a ceasefire. And people heaved a sigh of relief. Ironically the truce was initially announced not by India or Pakistan but by American President Trump in social media. The agreement and subsequent reports of cross-border firing came after four days of strikes by both sides that went deep into each other’s territories and intense shelling on either side of the Line of Control [LoC] in Kashmir that left many civilians dead, wounded or displaced. The people in the border villages in Jammu & Kashmir are the worst affected. Whether the ceasefire will last is anybody’s guess. Prime Minister Modi in his speech on ‘Operation Sindoor’ in the evening of May12, didn’t explain how Trump played the role of a mediator.

Tragically war hysteria seems to have gripped the people on both sides of the fence. India’s air strikes deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir [Pok] against Pakistan army sponsored terror establishments to avenge the Pahalgam massacre have gained wide public endorsement though some people are worried as they raise their feeble voice ‘we don’t want war’ amidst an atmosphere of jingoism. No doubt public discourse is largely congratulatory to the government of India, with some political figures asking for more retaliatory attacks without realising the consequences. Exaggerated claims of military success, amplified by the media, more precisely by electronic media, in both countries, have created a tense situation, not conducive to peace initiative. The sub-continentals, particularly hawks in Pakistan are not interested in de-escalation though public opinion across the world is in favour of it. And at the end the Uncle Sam’s pressure worked. Both India and Pakistan have little option but to follow America’s dictates. Surprisingly, even the official left parties in India, not to speak of the right-wing hardliners, are criticising the Modi government for abruptly halting the military operations. They want a repeat performance of 1971 when 93,000 Pakistani troops surrendered to Indian military and New Delhi showed the audacity to defy Washington and Beijing because of the strength of Indo-Soviet friendship treaty. Unfortunately, this time Modi’s India is closer to Washington, not Moscow.

One of the outcomes of 1971 war was the Shimla Agreement. The recent events, however, raise the question of practical relevance of the Shimla Accord. The Shimla Agreement signed in July 1972 by Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistan President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was conceived after the 1971 Indo-Pak war. The conflict led to the liberation of Bangladesh from what was formerly East Pakistan.

Originally formalised in the Shimla agreement, the LoC was meant to function as a stabilising mechanism, preventing inadvertent conflict and providing a buffer for confidence-building measures. Military actions–both kinetic and technological–all along the LoC round the year have virtually made this line irrelevant. The idea of converting LoC into a permanent international border was reportedly rejected by Bhutto. So the legacy of contention and confrontation continues. While the Shimla Agreement may not yet be officially defunct, its practical utility is in serious doubt. Pakistan has already threatened to quit the Shimla agreement. In practice they have long abandoned the Shimla mechanism. The Shimla agreement is a fragile relic of a more hopeful era but hope for peaceful co-existence between two neighbours armed with nuclear teeth remains an illusion. The Shimla Agreement is no longer a framework of peace as envisaged at the time of signing the pact. The fundamental obligation to resolve disputes without third party involvement now stands cancelled after Trump taking credit for halting the war and that too by implied threat of stopping trade.

Drone intrusions, artillery shelling of civilian areas and retaliatory measures by the Indian side have turned the LoC into a theatre of sustained confrontation, with devastating consequences for the people of J&K. Their homes get reduced to rubble, livelihood destroyed and in some cases entire families forced into displacement.

15-05-2025

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 49, June 1 - 7, 2025