The Sun is setting for USA–III

Ashok Nag

By the end of World War II, the sun had set forever on the British Empire, and on the horizon emerged two superpowers vying for global supremacy: the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Although their wartime collaboration against the Axis powers had secured a decisive victory, the fundamental ideological chasm between them quickly came to the forefront. The economic system that the USA adopted was market-driven and based on private ownership and individual enterprise while USSR espoused state ownership and centralized planning of resources. These opposed worldviews–one favoring capitalist democracy, the other advocating for communist authorita-rianism–set the stage for a new era of geopolitical rivalry.

One of the most critical lessons of World War II was the realisation that technological superiority would be the defining factor in determining the outcome of future conflicts. The devastating bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrated the unprecedented destructive power of advanced technology. These events not only marked the end of the war but also heralded the beginning of an arms race, where scientific and technological innovation became the cornerstone of military and political dominance.

By launching the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, into space in 1957, the USSR ignited the race for technological supremacy. Another historic milestone followed this achievement in 1961, when Yuri Gagarin became the first human to reach space, further intensifying the competition. When Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walked out of the Saturn V to set foot on the lunar surface, it became clear that the USA was emerging as a leader in space technology. Furthermore, the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republic or USSR was dissolved as a sovereign state in December 1991 and a new state in the name of the Russian Federation came into existence. Although this new state inherited the majority of the erstwhile USSR’s military resources, its ability to challenge the USA on the technological front was significantly diminished. Despite transitioning from a state-driven planned economy to a more market-oriented system, the Russian Federation struggled to match the technological and economic prowess of the United States, solidifying the latter’s position as the dominant global superpower in the post-Cold War era.

One of the fallout of the collapse of the USSR was that the newly formed states could not muster sufficient resources for innovative research and development of new technology, to remain at par with the USA. The resource crunch also led a good number of Russian scientists and technology experts to migrate to Western countries, particularly the USA. A paper on Brain drain found that “there was a net loss of published researchers for Russia in the fields of neuroscience, decision sciences, mathematics, biochemistry, pharmacology, chemistry, computer science, chemical engineering, materials science, psychology, medicine, and physics.”(Subbotin and Aref 2020)

The technological supremacy that the USA enjoyed after the Second World War and subsequently after the disintegration of the USSR is unprecedented in the history of human civilization. This led to hubris that made the USA complacent and helped China to acquire the underlying knowledge driving the new technology by allowing American technology giants to build production centers in China. Chinese students flocked to American universities to do Ph.D. and got acquainted with the scientific base of the latest technology. It is to the credit of the Chinese leaders that they understood the critical role of technology in creating an empire in the 21st century. The competitive edge that China enjoys in respect of the most advanced technology is evident from China’s leading position in the most advanced industrial sectors, described below.

ITIF, a US-based nonprofit, nonpartisan research and educational institute, was founded in 2006. A major area of concern of IITF is the “America’s competitive position in advanced technologies and industries that constitute the most strategically important sectors of the economy”. To undertake focused research in this area, the Institute created the Hamilton Centre of Industrial Strategy. One of the main mandates of this Centre is to research and advocate appropriate strategies to policymakers to keep America the numerouno in emerging technologies and overcome the challenge posed by China. This center has been publishing an index called the Hamilton Index of Advanced-Technology Performance, to track global shares of value-added output in 10 advanced industry sectors of 40 countries. These industries are Pharmaceuticals; Fabricated Metals, Basic Metals, Electrical Equipment; Machinery and Equipment; Motor Vehicles, Other Transportation; Computers and Electronics, Information Technology and Information services; and Chemicals (not including pharmaceuticals).

The top ten countries accounted for 75% of total global production of 10.1 trillion dollars. China’s share was around 25% of the global output of these technology-intensive industries, a little above the share of the rest of the world outside the top 10 producers.

It is beyond doubt that China is the potential challenger to the US supremacy over technology and consequent military dominance over the world. When US technology companies like Apple were rushing to China to take advantage of its cheap labor, none could imagine that China was working on technology assimilation through unbundling the underlying technology stacks, chips by chips. It is now too late for the US President to force Apple to invest 500 billion USD in the USA. Apple has been already disrobed.

Conclusion
The American Empire, like all empires of the past, is on the path of an irretrievable decline. In this article I have highlighted, some early signals indicating the potential future demise of the current superpower of the world- the United States of America. From this assertion, it does not follow that USA will cease to become the dominant power of the world in the next one or two decades. America still has the most productive research centers hosted by the world’s best educational institutions but the recent steps taken by President Trump indicate that the empire is now on a survival mode.

China appears to be the strongest contender to replace the United States as the next global superpower, driven by its rapid advancements in economic growth, technological innovation, and military strength. However, like the former Soviet Union, China remains an authoritarian state. In societies where mere survival isseen as a privilege, the majority often accepts autocratic rule, as long as day-to-day existence is not a constant struggle. (Footnote 3)

Yet, man does not live by bread alone. Once basic needs are met, the mind begins to seek higher pursuits–exploring history, envisioning the future, and questioning the world. The ability to seek knowledge freely, to think without bias or fear, is what defines modern humanity. From this perspective, China is among the least desirable places for a thinking individual to live.

The Chinese government has implemented an Individual Social Credit System, where any criticism of the state results in a low score, restricting a person’s rights and opportunities. This system exemplifies the limitations of freedom in China, reinforcing its position as a powerhouse built on control rather than intellectual or ideological openness.

Orwell, in his novel 1984, wrote ‘‘Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.” As we look toward the future, we can only hope that by 2084, no such empire will rise to wield such power.

Footnote:
1:    The second act takes place off the continent, and it’s striking how quickly it begins. Just three years after filling out the shape of the logo map, the United States started annexing new territory overseas. First, it claimed dozens of uninhabited islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Then Alaska in 1867. From 1898 to 1900 it absorbed the bulk of Spain’s overseas empire (the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam) and annexed the non-Spanish lands of Hawai‘i, Wake Island, and American Samoa. In 1917 it bought the US Virgin Islands. By the Second World War, the territories made up nearly a fifth of the land area of the Greater United States. (Imerwahr, Daniel, page 21)

2:   Unlike the empires of the 19th century and earlier, the US Empire has utilized globalization as a surrogate mechanism to enforce an indirect system of colonization. The global ecosystem of multilateral organizations is largely dominated by US nationals or by officials and intelligentsia from states allied with the USA. For instance, according to a 2017 Oxfam report (op. cit.), 39% of heads of state globally were educated at universities in the USA, UK, and France. Additionally, the leadership of institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF is traditionally selected by the USA and Europe. However, maintaining such hegemony over a vast network of international institutions requires significant financial influence, which, in the case of the USA, is now on a declining trajectory. The graphs below show how the US is on such a gradual declining path in terms of many important indicators of its ability to finance its imperial hubris. The US government is surviving by borrowing indiscriminately from other developed countries, leveraging the strength of is currency and the willingness of many large countries like China to subscribe to US treasury bonds. There is no better description of the emerging situation of the US Empire than the one provided by the Irish poet W.B. Yeats in his poem “The Second Coming,” written in 1919, following the end of the First World War.
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
      Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, 

3:   Graham Allison wrote his book titled “Destined for War–Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap” in 2017. He ended his Preface with the following words: Will Presidents Trump and Xi, or their successors, follow in the tragic footsteps of the leaders of Athens and Sparta or Britain and Germany? Or will they find a way to avoid war as effectively as Britain and the US did a century ago or the US and the Soviet Union did through four decades of Will Presidents Trump and Xi, or their successors, follow in the tragic footsteps of the leaders of Athens and Sparta or Britain and Germany? Or will they find a way to avoid war as effectively as Britain and the US did a century ago or the US and the Soviet Union did through four decades of Cold War? Obviously, no one knows. We can be certain, however, that the dynamic Thucydides identified will intensify in the years ahead Cold War? Obviously, no one knows. We can be certain, however, that the dynamic Thucydides identified will intensify in the years ahead.

      After 7 years and resurfacing of Donald Trump as the President of USA, it is becoming a certainty that the USA and China are marching towards the Thucydides trap, which says “When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, alarm bells should sound: danger ahead.” (From Allison‘s Preface)

References:
Aladangady Aditya et al, October 18, 2023, Greater Wealth, Greater Uncertainty: Changes in Racial Inequality in the Survey of Consumer Finances, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

Allison Graham, 2017, Destined for War–Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, New York

Atkinson Robert D and Ian Tufts, December 2023, The Hamilton Index, 2023: China Is Running Away With Strategic Industries, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)

Atkinson Robert D, September 2024, China is rapidly becoming a leading Innovator in Advanced Industries, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)

Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Jail Inmates in 2023–Statistical Tables,” January 16, 2025: https://bjs.ojp.gov/web-report/jail-inmates-2023-statistical-tables

Dalio Ray, 2021 Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order, Avid Reader Press, New York

Dan P. Ly, 2021, Historical Trends in the Representativeness and Incomes of Black Physicians, 1900–2018, J Gen Intern Med 37(5):1310–2

Evan Andrews, 2014, 8 Reasons Why Rome Fell, https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-why-rome-fell

Gibbon Edward, The History Of The Decline And Fall Of The Roman Empire, The Project Gutenberg eBook

Gottlieb Aaron, Flynn Kalen, 2021, The Legacy of Slavery and Mass Incarceration: Evidence from Felony Case Outcomes, Social Service Review

Heape, W. 1931. Emigration, Migration and Nomadism. Cambridge: W. Heffer and Son Ltd., pp. xii + 369.) quoted in William Henry Burt- Territoriality and Home Range Concepts as Applied to Mammals; Journal of Mammalogy (1943, page 346).

Immerwahr Daniel, 2019, How to hide an Empire: A history of the Greater United States, Farrar, Straus and Giroux

National Community Reinvestment Coalition, November 14, 2023, The Racial Wealth Divide and Black Billionaires Across the Globe

Sirry Alang, et.al- 2017, Police Brutality and Black Health: Setting the Agenda for Public Health Scholars,
Am J Public Health. No 107: page 662–665.

Subbotin Alexander, Samin Aref, 2021, Brain drain and brain gain in Russia: Analyzing international migration of researchers by discipline using Scopus bibliometric data 1996–2020, Scientometrics

Tacitus, Agricola 29-32: https://www.thelatinlibrary.com/imperialism/readings/agricola.html

Toynbee Arnold J: 1951 A Study of History Oxford University Press; Fifth Impression (with corrections)

Data sources

World Development Indicators: API_NY. GDP. MKTP.CD_DS2_en_excel_v2_ 76262.xls
World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)-Country-Time series
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - BOP data
United States: Balance of Payments Standard Presentation
P_Data_Extract_From_World_Development_ Indicators
eto-cat-export—research—all_ai_fields—summary.csv
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-2.Households by Total Money Income, Race, and Hispanic Origin of Householder: 1967 to 2023; (definitions and other metadata about Table A-2 is given in https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsmar24.pdf

(Concluded)

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 49, June 1 - 7, 2025