After the Assassination

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh—the leader of Hamas’s Qatar-based office—in Iran, is unlikely to change the war dynamics at the moment, albeit tensions are mounting in the Middle East. No doubt people in Israel and Lebanon are on edge as the possibility of heightened violence looms large over the region. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei immediately vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death and is believed to have already ordered a strike on Israel. But to resort to any armed retaliation would invite a full-fledged war with Israel. Also, Israel has not commented on the death of Haniyeh. Experts are reading too much between the lines predicting a regional flare-up. Not that Haniyeh’s assassination was the first of its kind. Nor it would be the last. In the yester years, they carried out a number of assassinations–it is part of their war gambling. They have also killed FuadShukr, a military adviser to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. A commander with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) was also assassinated in Syria, not long after Haniyeh’s demise. This terroristic program is actually aimed at derailing the ongoing peace process and stopping any immediate truce. Hamas has second-ranking leadership. So they didn’t take much time to replace Haniyeh’s place. In truth, a cease-fire is not imminent, notwithstanding dozens of UN resolutions. The negotiations that dragged on for all these months were a ruse. It was a tactical ploy to carry on the war by diplomatic means. Many Israelis disagree with their government and support a cease-fire that would bring hostages to their families. But they don’t matter.

America’s apparent disapproval of Israel’s attempt to escalate the war in West Asia is anything but sheer hypocrisy. While continually advocating a cease-fire and two-state solution, Washington doesn’t stop arms supply to Israel. They are now sending jets and warships to protect their bases in the Middle East and strengthen Israel’s military capabilities. The lack of a formal security pact with the United States allows Israel to risk escalation and defy America’s veiled warning, somewhat openly.

Israel’s war cabinet thinks the best way to ensure Israel’s security and bring hostages home is to defeat Hamas on the battlefield. After every bombing, Netanyahu emphasised that Hamas was cracking and weakening. But the ground reality is completely otherwise. They have bombed Gaza to the Stone Age and yet Hamas resurrects and regroups within a short period. Israelis and their American patrons have learned nothing from Vietnam.

It’s not that easy to kill an idea that is deep-rooted in the Palestinian psyche. Then militarily Hamas is not fighting an isolated battle. As long as they have a solid rear in Iran that supports it in every possible way, Hamas will continue fighting despite losses.

Meanwhile, Israel has gone on record that they want war to end but on their terms and timeline. In other words, war will continue and the cries of Palestinian mothers and children will bury under rubble. The Israelis have no intention of walking away from the fight with Hamas’s top leadership remaining intact and Yahya Sinwar, the Group’s Gaza leader, believes he is winning the war by engaging Israeli forces into a grinding conflict that has isolated Israel internationally.

But the Israeli authorities simply ignore international outcry against them. Nor are they afraid of strictures by the International Court of Justice. They don’t attach much importance to protests by peace activists against the Netanyahu government across the world. Even Jewish people, both at home and abroad are protesting against Israeli barbarism and demanding immediate cease-fire as many hostages are still in captivity of the militants. If the war lingers suffering of Palestinians will multiply. Gaza is already a living hell that beggars description.

If anything, a fight to the finish as the Israeli doctrine states, will do more harm than good, causing more civilian deaths, radicalising more people, particularly the youth, making it too difficult for Israel to declare an outright ‘victory’ anytime soon. Hamas has so far succeeded in absorbing the Israeli onslaught and their fighters are ready to sacrifice for a cause.

6.8.2024

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Frontier
Vol 57, No. 8, Aug 18 - 24, 2024